Four likely outcomes after Raila withdraws from repeat elections


The country is reeling after the announcement by National Super Alliance flagbearer and opposition leader Raila Odinga that he will not participate in the October 26 repeat elections.

Many are now wondering what direction the country takes with the new developments.

Many legal scholars see four possible routes that the country can take.

  1. Ekuru Aukot may be allowed to participate in the repeat elections and the October 26 repeat election date stands. Aukot’s inclusion can be challenged in court.
  2. President Uhuru can be declared the sole candidate for the repeat elections and the Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission (IEBC) can then declare him elected unopposed after which he will be sworn in by the Chief Justice.
  3. If the IEBC’s decision to declare President Kenyatta as the winner based on his sole candidacy, other parties including NASA can go to the Supreme Court and petition for fresh elections. Once the court makes its decision, fresh elections can be held or President Kenyatta’s victory is affirmed.
  4. IEBC complies with the Supreme Court decision to conduct repeat elections and proceed with the scheduled October 26 poll date. They may also decide to declare President Kenyatta the winnere and avoid conducting an expensive repeat election.

Mr Odinga announced on Tuesday that he was withdrawing from the repeat polls scheduled for October 26. He also said that his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka will not participate. Only Mr Kenyatta and Mr Odinga were on the ballot for the repeat presidential elections.

The fresh elections were ordered after the Supreme Court nullified Mr Kenyatta election in the August 8 polls.

Many have questioned Mr Odinga’s move and have called on the IEBC to clarify the way forward. Many cite Article 138 (b) of the constitution which reads:

A presidential election shall be cancelled and a new election held if–

(a) no person has been nominated as a candidate before the expiry of the period set for the delivery of nominations;
(b) a candidate for election as President or Deputy President dies on or before the scheduled election date; or
(c) a candidate who would have been entitled to be declared elected as President, dies before being declared elected as President.

Many point out that Mr Odinga withdrew which is not accommodated in the clause.